Buckeye Breakdown 12

The 2009 Ohio State University versus University of Michigan has been bad mouthed this week, as a game that’s lost its luster. While the Buckeyes have strung together 5 consecutive wins over the Wolverines, U of M owns the series record by a decisive margin (57-42-6). Pride, desperation and maybe Rodriguez’ job being on the line makes this a “50\50, pick ‘em” game.  This is not as outlandish as it appears at first blush.

Anyone with a grain of sense in their head knows that this is greatest rivalry in all of college sport, bar none. Strange things happen in rivalry games. There are a lot of college football fans that just don’t get magnitude of the event, and this year’s contest is particularly challenging for them. Discounting the effects of the current swelling membership of the OSU Haters Fraternity (Rush Chairman – Mark May, ESPN), we have to ask why? It’s always a physical, high emotion affair.

Michigan has looked absolutely lost defensively, in the second half of the season.  They are better against the run than the pass, and if you’re a U of M fan, that has to be encouraging. Offensively, they’ve been OK and Forcier has proven to be both tough and effective. Unfortunately, their games have resembled track meets, a whole lot more than the smashmouth football the Wolverine fans have become accustomed to watching in the Big House.

Ohio State’s defence has consistently smothered their opposition during the same period. The kicking game will be one of the big discussion points for the Game Day crew, but in the end I don’t think it will be the deciding factor. An improved Buckeye ground attack has been the sweet science of the recent success. Although Terrelle has been relegated more to being more of a bus driver than playmaker, it’s working.

Now that the X’s and O’s have been addressed, let’s get to the heart of what gives Michigan a puncher’s chance of upsetting the Bucks… heart and emotion. Saturday’s game could end up being their “bowl game” and RichRod’s swan song. If they do not win, Michigan will not be bowl eligible for the second straight year, after a 30+ year streak of appearances. You can be sure the importance of this game is not lost on him and he will have the boys whipped up into a full frenzy by game time. 

There is no doubt, the young Buckeyes maturity will be tested, and it’s all about heart. OSU appears to clearly be the superior team, as they were last week against Iowa, but there is a serious possibility of a let down. We have secured a share of the Big 10 title already, as well as the BCS Rose Bowl. There’s not much extrinsic motivation to go out and dominate, since there is no real opportunity to improve our position. Coach JT must provide that motivation, which he does as well as outstanding preparation, but his preference for field position will be severely tested.

Distractions are tough for young teams to handle, and they have to be expected during this week. The Justin Boren saga will be played up and probably more of a positive than a negative for OSU. However, the tribute jerseys honoring the 1954 team has potential to be an emotional snake pit for the Buckeyes to contend with. It was curious to me that they (OSU, not Nike) opted not to unveil them on senior day, but in an opposing stadium.  The only thing I can think of rivaling this would be Earle’s farewell game at Michigan in his black fedora and the team in red spikes (we actually wore Pony, eek). He then went out in style with not only a win over Michigan, but a Cotton Bowl victory over Texas A&M in their back yard.

Michigan has proven all year that they can and will score. My feeling is that there will not be a shutout recorded this week (but we can certainly hope for one!). Tate Forcier is an accurate passer and a deceptively quick athlete. Earlier this year, I recall him running an option in for a TD from about 70 yards out. The zone read was the play and it has given the defense fits all year, which is a little surprising to me. You’ve got to love the onions on a true freshman talking about getting the win for his seniors, when none of them have said a word. I don’t want to see him be successful Saturday, but I like the kid.

The OSU kicking game is definitely a little more limited than normal and the Buckeye offense will have to shoulder more of the scoring responsibility as a consequence.  Because Michigan can score, this has the potential to create significant angst for Tressel, because the practical implication. He may need to loosen up his conservative play calling style to not put the game onto a walk on kicker’s foot needlessly. Scoring early and often is the best remedy for his kicker’s confidence.  

Risk taking and Jim Tressel do not frequently appear in the same sentence, but I can see three calculated opportunities to break the mold. The most obvious chance would be a fake punt. Lining up for a 47+ yard field goal attempt would be the time to expect it, largely because he would not have give up a ton of field position in exchange.  The second choice would be a situational substitution with Joe Bauserman in the red zone, and keeping Terrelle on the field. This creates a match up nightmare. Although not terribly likely, would be a Wildcat formation with Posey at tailback. This could be a little frightening for the home team, given the options available.

My prediction is that Ohio State will win by a score of 31-17, and the defense probably scores once. There are 3 keys for OSU to be successful, in my mind. We need better and consistent play by our defensive backfield. Chekwa looked uncharacteristically shaky last week, while Torrence was poor at best. We need more productivity out of our quarterback and passing game, plain and simple. Michigan’s front 7 is every bit as physical as Penn State or Wisconsin, and if we are reduced to being one dimensional we’re in trouble. Inserting a little deception into our play calling, will help the offense keep the troubled Wolverines off balance. Remember, when an animal is wounded and cornered is when they are most dangerous.  The Wolverines are both.

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